Arsenal have qualified for the knock-out stages of the Europa League, that much is beyond doubt.
What still remains to be seen, however, is whether they will qualify as group winners or whether they’ll have to negotiate a two-legged play-off against one of the sides set to drop down from the Champions League group stages.
On Thursday, Mikel Arteta’s men head to the Netherlands to take on PSV, a team they beat quite comfortably at the Emirates just last week and the only side still capable of overhauling them in the group.
Victory and our place as group winners is confirmed. Should we lose, however, we will need to beat FC Zurich at the Emirates in a week’s time to be guaranteed the simplest passage into the next round.
With an energy-sapping set of fixtures already played this month, and more still to come before the deed is done, it begs the question…do we go all in for the win at PSV or take the opportunity to rest a few of our first-team players and let those on the fringes get the job done?
There are arguments to be made for both approaches but it’s also possible that we just might be able to get the best of both scenarios.
That is to say, our second-string could very well go to PSV and get the job done without the need to risk our first-team stars. That would be the ideal scenario and, frankly, given how PSV performed last week, I can’t see why it couldn’t be done.
That said, it’s unlikely the Dutch side will be quite so bad as they were in London again and our own form of late has been a little chequered, even if we have continued to pick up wins. There has been a certain amount of weariness to our performances of late, particularly in second halves, and that situation is unlikely to have improved following yet another three-game week.
It might be wiser, therefore, to take a bit of a punt on those fringe players whose legs will be fresher. They remain more than good enough to get a job done for us on the night (don’t forget, a draw will do) and it leaves some minutes in the legs of the players we will likely need for the visit of Nottingham Forest on Sunday.
Forest are likely to be a stubborn, durable opponent so fresh legs will be key. What we don’t need, as I see it, is to risk it all on Thursday and come away with injuries. A strain or pull for just one or two key players could do more harm to our season that defeat at PSV, particularly with an abject Zurich side to come in north London.
That doesn’t mean we should lower the drawbridge and raise the white flag but it does mean we should lean into all the resources at our disposal. Kieran Tierney, Rob Holding, Matt Turner, Sambi Lokonga, Eddie Nketiah and Fabio Vieira should all be starting – perhaps even Cedric Soares, with minutes restricted for the likes of Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli.
It is inevitable the some of those we’d rather wrap in cotton wool will play but five substitutions is a real god send for a side grappling with as many fixtures as we are. We should be taking advantage of that to the fullest.
Given Arteta’s overwhelming drive to win all things, all the time, I fear he may start a strong side and aim to get the win wrapped up before half-time. Should that gamble pay off, it would mean his side really could take a week off when Zurich come to town and I can see the sense in it, but boy is it a gamble.
All eyes will be on the team sheet tomorrow to see how he plays it but, for my money, discretion may just be the better part of valour this time.
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